부제목 :
개성공단은 애초에 실패 - 한국 이제 받아들여야”
tbs eFM (FM101.3MHz) 영어라디오 시사 프로그램 <프라임타임 (Primetime)>
한반도전문가 ‘브루스 클링너’(美 헤리티지재단 선임연구원),
한반도 전문가이자 미국의 대표적인 보수 싱크탱크인 美헤리티지 재단의 선임연구원 브루스 클링너는 지난 4월 30일 저녁 tbs eFM 라디오방송 시사 프로그램인 <프라임타임(Primetime)>에 출연해 “개성공단은 실패” 했으며 “한국은 이제 이 사실을 인정하고 받아들여야 한다”고 지적했다.
클링너는 이어 ‘개성공단은 경제적, 정치적인 측면에서 모두 실패했으며 북한의 연일 이어지는 협박과 도발은 외국인 투자자들뿐만 아니라 남한의 대기업들조차 투자하는 것을 꺼리게 했다. 참여한 기업들은 중소기업뿐이었다. 정치적인 측면에서 보았을 때, 김대중 정권은 북한에 정치적, 경제적인 개혁을 일으키고자 개성공단을 시작하였다. 하지만, 개성공단은 평양에 어떠한 의미있는 개혁도 가져다주지 못했으며 천안함과 연평도 사건 그리고 최근의 이어진 도발들도 막지 못했다.’ 고 덧붙였다.
개성공단 철수로 인해 공식채널이 단절된 남북 관계에 관해 클링너는 “현재 오바마 정부는 북한에 다시 대화를 제기할 의향이 없다. 대신 박근혜 정부가 그 역할을 해주기를 기대하고 있다”고 진단했다.
INTERVIEW
Topic: Conflicts with North Korea &
Next Steps for South Korea and the U.S.
Guest: Bruce Klingner (Senior Research Fellow, Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation)
Segment Introduction
Host: As of today, only seven South Korean workers remain in the 개성 Industrial Complex that faces closure. Progressive leaders that include 문재인, the former presidential candidate from the main opposition party, are voicing that the 박근혜 administration should perhaps offer talks to break the impasse over the venue, which was designed to improve inter-Korean relations. So, how should Washington and Seoul plan for unexpected developments and unpredictability here on the Peninsula? We have special guest tonight joining us Bruce Klingner (Senior Research Fellow, Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation).
Bruce, hello!
Interview:
Bruce: Hello, thanks for having me again.
Host: It’s good to have you back. In your view, what are the causes of, why the situation has gotten worse here especially between South Korea, North Korea and all the recent threats, as well as, recently what’s been going on with Kaesong.
Bruce: Well, I think the really the answer is right in the question. It is why have the situation, you know, deteriorated because it, because of North Korea’s warlike threats and its shuttering the Kaesong joint industrial complex. So, we can debate the reasons why Kim Jong-un increased the tension and…and increased threat level, but really, what we need to do is focus on the actions. You know, he, most recently increased the threat level and during his time and in power, he has repeatedly violated the UN Security Council resolutions. He is threatening, you know, the actions against the U.S., South Korea. He said the armistice is no longer operative. All inter-Korean nonaggression agreements are inoperative, you know, for whatever reason, he has certainly escalated tensions on the peninsula.
Host: You would probably disagree with the critics, right, Bruce, as far as what Park, Geun-hye did issuing those ultimatums basically saying, you guys talk with us by twelve o’clock or we are going to have to pull out our workers for humanitarian concerns.
Bruce: Yeh, I would say what North, what Park, Geun-hye did was offer dialogue, um, as the U.S. and South Korea have repeatedly offered dialogue and negotiations to Pyongyang and once again, North Korea rejected dialogue, rejected engagement. Um, and as for the ultimatum, it really was North Korea had already pulled out 53 thousands of its workers, it had, um, you know, North Korea is the one who repeatedly politicized the Kaesong Industrial zone. They have, in the past, you know, restricted South Korean movement over political issues. The South Korea joining in proliferation security initiative or the annual military exercises so, really, it’s North Korea that has politicized the complex over the years.
Host: As you know, a lot of people bemoaning the fact that perhaps Kaesong, this last link of inter-Korean cooperation may end up being a failure. I understand, Bruce, that you have an article upcoming in the LA Times that actually addresses the issue. But, in a nutshell, what do you believe is the future of Kaesong?
Bruce: I think it was already a life-support even before the latest threats and I think it really doesn’t have a viable future. Well, really, I think it is time for South Korea face up to that Kaesong experiment was a failure. Um, economically, it never really got off the ground, it never lived up to its expectations because of North Korea’s repeated threats, its actions which, you know, really kept away not only foreign investors from wanting to join but even any of South Korean large companies. They never joined. It was all small and medium businesses. And politically, clearly it has not achieved the objectives that, you know, when Kim, Dae-jung started it, it was to induce political, economic reform in North Korea and to moderate North Korean behavior. We certainly have not seen any political reform and there is no meaningful economic reform in Korea, in North Korea and certainly Kaesong did not prevent Cheonan or Yeonpyongdo or the latest series of threats.
Host: As you've been visiting Seoul, talking to various officials , policy makers,
obviously there is that political concerns as well as economic concerns of what to do with those hundreds of businesses that have invested already in the complex and how they are going to be, I suppose, subsidized or compensated
Bruce: Right.. When they went in, there was an agreement sort of insurance guarantees by the South Korean government but also the businesses
went in knowing it really was politically motivated economic venture so they certainly were aware of that and I don't know the details of the guarantees that the South Korean government offered them, you know, as part of going in.
Host: Now, when we have the tension here and we know that communication between the two sides, South and North Korea, basically nonexistent right now, what do you foresee South Korea having to do and what Washington has to do I guess in the next few weeks and months?
Bruce: Well.. What really the U.S and South Korea been focus more on the deterrence in the last couple of months, certainly in response to threat not only to incinerate Washington and Seoul but also more tactical level threats against South Korea's Northern islands. The Obama administration feels it tried very extensive attempt of dialogue when he first came in office in 2009 that was very clearly rebuffed by North Korea engaged in a series of provocations. And the Obama administration felt that it tried again with the leaped agreement
of last year which North Korea’s announcement two weeks later that it would launch a long range rocket that's violating UN resolution in addition of late
agreement. You know, right now the Obama administration doesn't really have appetite or inclination to reaching out again. So they are looking to the Park administration to give it a try and Madam Park has been trying with her trustpolitik policy of trying to offer a dialogue and yet North Korea is the one that severs communication.
Host: Among the things that has North Korea all hot and bothered besides the UN sanctions are statements that are hurting the pride of the nation. Are these Joint Military Drills between the U.S and South Korea, two months drills, they ended today. Does that make any difference you think in the dynamic?
Bruce: I think it will in the sense that North Korea were used those as an excuse what they may do is to sort of declare victory and go home. They might say that their rhetoric and their military actions, you know, prevented a U.S- South Korean invasion of the North. They usually depicted our annual exercise that way. You know one thing that is interesting is that with the US and South Korea doesn't make public or emphasize is that North Korea does an annual winter training cycle. It starts in December and it starts with low ______ in garrison training and it increases national army and usually culminate in March and April with a core level exercise. You know, I am always surprised that both Seoul and Washington don't make that more publicly known that these are core-level exercises, usually mechanized core, moving down close to the demilitarized zone, a very provocative behavior and yet we never protested and we don't even really make our citizens aware of it and yet when the US does its annual defensive exercises, North Korea uses that as propaganda.
Host: That’s a very good point... Final question, Bruce.
The upcoming Obama-Park submit in Washington.. What do you think needs to be discussed? A lot of people hear a lot of buzz about the OPCON transfer
perhaps being delayed?
Bruce: Yeah it's clearly North Korea’s going to push itself to the top of the agenda as much as the U.S. with Korea would like to focus on other issues. You know, we may not discuss but clearly focus is continued implementation of KOR-US FTA that’s very positive development. Um…affirming the alliance and affirming the U.S. deterrence guarantee with all the issues, discussions on how to react to or address North Korean problem clearly will be a part of it. Um, one thing that likely won’t be discussed to any great extent is the civilian reprocessing, the so-called one two three agreement because both sides basically agreed kick the can down the road. So, then, had potential for causing some strains in the relationship and perhaps overshadowing what I think will otherwise be a very positive summit meeting. Um, so by postponing the issue they really moved it so far the backbone that I don’t think it will overshadow the other issues both positive and negative.
Henry: Alright, Bruce, I want to thank you once again for your time.
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